Drawing Red Lines on the Map: Incentive Travel’s New Geography

by Pádraic Gilligan, co-founder, SoolNua | Research & Consultancy, SITE

As 2025 unfolds, it’s increasingly difficult to pin down exactly how incentive travel professionals feel about the short- to medium-term outlook for our industry. One thing is clear: sentiment has shifted since 2024.

The Incentive Travel Index, released in November 2024, painted a nuanced picture—continued growth in the use and volume of incentive travel, but with flat budgets and a growing emphasis on delivering more with less.

Yet a ominous shadow of uncertainty was already forming, particularly around 2026 and especially among European buyers. With 2025 programs largely confirmed and in the bag, early signals of geopolitical unrest and economic volatility were beginning to register on sentiment for 2026 and beyond. These signs have only intensified since then.

Nothing has emerged to soothe this rising unease—if anything, it has deepened. The words of Jorge Mario Bergoglio, better known as Pope Francis, now feel prophetic: “We are not living through an epoch of change, but a change of epoch.”

So what does this epochal shift mean for the world of work and, by extension, for the incentive travel industry?

• Will it alter how companies recognise and reward their people?
• In a time of economic strain and rising inflation, will cash once again become king—pushing experiential rewards like travel to the margins?
• And as geopolitical tensions escalate, will tit-for-tat policies shrink the map—limiting not just where we can go, but where we’ll be welcomed?

We’ve been here before—sort of.

At the dawn of COVID, we all became sudden futurists, projecting outcomes and predicting seismic shifts. But that was a moment without precedent, and most of what we forecast didn’t quite play out the way we imagined.

Now, as Pope Francis reminds us, we’re not living through an epoch of change, but a change of epoch. Once again, we find ourselves, like King Lear on the heath, squinting into the fog, trying to read the signs. Certainty eludes us. But that doesn’t mean we can’t prepare.

Incentive travel has always adapted. And if we can’t predict, we can at least prepare—through scenario planning, through imaginative thinking, through asking “what if?”

Here are five emerging scenarios that could shape how global corporations approach reward and recognition in this unsettled time

1. The Return of the King: Cash Makes a Comeback

In times of volatility, liquidity reigns. With inflation rising and markets wobbling, cash is reclaiming its throne as the preferred reward. It’s flexible, immediate, and, let’s face it, easy to justify on a spreadsheet.

The experiential value of travel—connection, motivation, transformation—remains, but it’s a harder sell when budgets are tight and stakeholders demand visible, tangible ROI. The question, then, isn’t whether incentive travel disappears—but whether it gets pushed to the margins in favour of cold, hard currency.

2. Go Local or Go Nowhere

As geopolitical instability grows, so too does corporate caution. The long-haul, multi-country incentive program will continue to cede to something closer to home — regional experiences, domestic destinations, tightly controlled environments.

We’re seeing a definite shift from “where’s hot?” to “where’s safe?” and from “go big” to “get there.” We can expect more short-haul, all-inclusive programs — and fewer air miles and less geo-political risk.

3. Recognition in a Hybrid World

If COVID taught us anything, it’s that digital can—and will—be part of the future. In the face of global uncertainty, many companies may hedge their bets by going hybrid: combining tangible rewards with virtual celebration.

Will we see more live-streamed recognition events, more gamified leaderboards, more curated reward boxes landing on doorsteps across continents? Travel isn’t gone—it’s just got competition from the screen.

4. The Rise of Purpose-Led Recognition

In a world on edge, meaning matters more than ever. Corporations are looking to align their recognition programs with values—sustainability, equity, impact.

Incentive travel evolves from indulgence to intention. Think regenerative travel. Think give-back experiences. Think curated journeys that reflect not just who you are as a top performer—but who we are as a company. Travel not just as a reward, but as a statement of purpose.

5. Destination Diplomacy

Finally, the elephant in the departure lounge: not every destination is viable anymore. Visa restrictions, diplomatic tensions, cultural sensitivities—they’re all shaping where we can go and where we’re welcome.

Corporations are quietly drawing red lines through maps. Travel planners are rethinking not just the logistics, but the optics. It’s no longer just about the coolest cities, the best beaches or the brightest lights—it’s about the safest choice, the smartest narrative, the least risk.

We don’t know how it will all play out. But we do know that reward and recognition—as ever—will respond, adapt and evolve. And if we plan thoughtfully, stay agile, and keep people at the centre of everything, we’ll be ready for whatever this new epoch brings.

Conclusion

Personally, I don’t particularly care for options 1 and 3 above. 2 is neutral but options 4 and 5 represent truly positive evolutions to the core value proposition of incentive travel.

But what do you think will happen?