by Pádraic Gilligan, Co-founder, SoolNua | Research & Consultancy, SITE
Incentive Travel Index 2025
The 2025 Incentive Travel Index is now in the field and, based on recent findings from NorthStar Media’s Pulse survey, we’re seeing a marked shift in sentiment around incentive travel. “Uncertainty” has become the watchword. With the Damocles’ sword of tariffs still in the air, many organizations are hesitating to commit to the longer planning cycles that successful incentive travel programs typically require. Cash rewards, gift cards, and merchandise are increasingly appearing as simpler alternatives.
But let’s be clear: this isn’t a collapse of our industry.
What we’re witnessing is a recalibration. The rules are changing rapidly, but the fundamentals remain sound. We simply need to adapt our approach.
Early Indicators
Recent data from the leisure side of the house—always a reliable harbinger for group travel—tells a compelling story. Inbound tourism to the United States is down dramatically since Trump’s return to the White House: 15% fewer visitors from the UK, nearly 30% from Germany, and a jaw-dropping 45% reduction in Canadian crossings at some borders. With the usual suspects of travel deterrence—visa slowdowns, border hostility, retaliatory tariffs, cultural friction—once again in full swing, travellers are voting with their passports.
And remember: today’s leisure traveler becomes tomorrow’s incentive qualifier.
The same mid-level executive who chooses Rabat over Raleigh for her personal break will soon be weighing up a company reward trip. The same European millennial who skips Vegas for Valencia on ethical grounds will bring that sensibility to the group travel decision-making table.
In other words, the patterns are predictable. But more than that, they’re actionable.
From Macrotrends to Microshifts
If leisure is anything to go by, we’ll soon see a wholesale redrawing of the incentive travel map. Asia and Europe—specifically Japan, Seoul, Palma de Mallorca, Madeira, and lesser-known treasures like Reims and Brescia—are ascendant, according to UK based ABTA’s 2025 Destinations Report. Destinations that combine “safe,” “sustainable,” and “soulful” are soaring. The offbeat is in. The overwrought is out.
This realignment is not just geographical—it’s ideological.
Travel isn’t only about luxury anymore. It’s about meaning. ESG. Wellness. Regenerative experiences. And destinations that understand this will capture the next wave of incentive demand.
But, crucially, they’ll need to move faster to catch it.
The Death of the 18-Month Lead Time?
Traditionally, incentive travel ran on long timelines. Destination decision now; program in 18 months; qualifiers confirmed six months prior. But in today’s volatile macro-climate—with war, elections, sanctions and tariffs looming like unpredictable weather fronts—that timeline is becoming a liability.
Corporates are increasingly reluctant to lock in programs too far in advance. And who can blame them? A booking made today might find itself invalidated by visa changes, political boycotts, or newly imposed import/export restrictions tomorrow.
So what’s the answer?
Speed. Agility. Precision. A radical pivot from lead time to lead intelligence.
Technology as an Enabler
The MICE industry, for all its creativity, has lagged when it comes to AI adoption. But this is where artificial intelligence can play a game-changing role.
AI can track geopolitical risk in real time, providing early warnings about destination instability. It can analyse sentiment, forecast flight and fuel costs, scrape social media for emerging travel hotspots, and synthesise global news into decision-ready dashboards. It can model fallback scenarios in seconds—essential when you might need to pivot from Barcelona to Buenos Aires overnight.
More practically, AI tools can streamline planning workflows, generate content for participant communications, personalise reward experiences, and even offer automated concierge services during the event itself.
Put simply: AI can make you faster, smarter, more informed—and critically, more resilient.Our industry has sometimes been slow to adopt technological innovation, but this is precisely where tools like AI can provide significant advantages.
Finding Optimism
To borrow a metaphor from a recent Padraicino post, the soundtrack to our current moment may feel more like My Bloody Valentine than Mozart. Dissonant. Jarring. Occasionally unlistenable. But buried within the noise is a melody—steady, hopeful, guiding us forward.
The mood music of the moment is shifting. And if we lean in—really lean in—we’ll hear the harmony beneath the static.
Incentive travel isn’t disappearing; it’s evolving. Those who embrace the speed, the smarts, and the soul of this new era won’t just survive—they’ll thrive.
Let’s rewrite the score together